CERRIE Workshop
St. Catherine's College Oxford, July 21 - 23 2003
Workshop presentations and material used by LLRC
These are almost all pdf files. To download them
click on the yellow and black trefoil buttons on the left of the listed files.
One of LLRC's biggest objections to the way CERRIE has been run is the fact that it has ducked
discussing the fundamental issue of scientific philosophy. We describe this as
How scientists come to believe what they believe, and how they can believe things that are
wrong. We hold that epistemology and consideration of science philosophy are
absolutely crucial to trying to find our way through the sea of facts, dissonances, arguments and counter arguments
which characterise this whole area.
We think the Committee ought to see these as a scientific issue, but other committee members see it as
outside the remit. Our thoughts on this were excluded from the Interim Report for discussion at the Workshop in July 2003 but
a paper - Natural Philosophy and Deliberative Science -
was circulated to participants, together with heavy caveats making it clear that this was not
something the Committee had agreed. It is downloadable on this site in the form used by CERRIE's secretariat :-
click here.
As from February 2011 the PDFs have been removed for reasons of space. Email us for any information you may need.
Session 2: Current understanding of radiation risk
C. Busby overheads
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1. ICRP model assumptions and some questions, omissions and errors
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2. The target is the cell and its genetic material.
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3. Hot particles from Chernobyl: auto radiograph of skirt of
woman who visited Kiev in July 1986 (Dr B Reeve, U. of
Birmingham).
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4. Opening Latour's Black Box (Bruno Latour: Science in
Action, 1986); Ionising radiation at the cell level
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5. Official calls for overhaul of the ICRP model.
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6. Doses from a 1 micron diameter plutonium oxide particle
to lymphatic system according to different calculation
schemes.
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7. Errors in the Hiroshima study
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8. Mechanisms of failure of Hiroshima risk assessments
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9. Leukaemia in the Hiroshima controls (plotted from UNSCEAR
1963)
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10. Oversights of ICRP model in the low dose region
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11. ICRP failure: summary
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12. Result of failure is inability to predict or explain
nuclear site clusters by factors involving orders of
magnitude (ECRR 2003).
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13. The present tension: induction vs. deduction
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14. Wings of Death: Komensky
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15. Evidence of errors in Hiroshima analysis
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16. Infant mortality and weapons fallout (Whyte)
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17. Child leukaemia and the radiation age: radium production and leukaemia deaths in children 0-14
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18. Shortcomings of Hiroshima study
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19. Anthropology and scientists: comparing scientific and primitive belief structures
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20. Scientific Method
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Session 3 Radiation effects
C. Busby overheads
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1. Biphasic dose response and one possible source
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2. Biphasic example: Weinberg minisatellite DNA mutations in
Chernobyl liquidator children vs. unaffected siblings
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3. Biphasic effect on dose response in nuclear industry
family study
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4. Hormesis as an incorrect linear interpretation of a
biphasic response
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5. Hormesis and its implications
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6. Biphasic response is present in the Hiroshima study at
low dose
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Session 4 Epidemiological studies Part A
C. Busby Overheads
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1. US cancer deaths in 0 - 5 yrs. from Rosalie Bertell
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2. Infant mortality in US and elsewhere increases over
period of weapons tests (Whyte)
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3. Infant mortality from congenital heart defects in England
and Wales and Strontium-90 in milk and precipitation
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4. Infant mortality in Wales and air ionisation at Harwell;
infant mortality in Wales and England and Sr-90 in milk
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5. Fallout and childhood leukaemia 0 - 4 in England and
Wales by rainfall areas(Bentham and Haynes)
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6. Changes in age adjusted death rates for all leukaemias in
US and Sr-90 (Archer)
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7. Nordic leukaemia study with and without Danish data
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8. Infant leukaemia in Denmark 1948-84: data from Olsen
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9. Childhood and infant lymphoid leukaemia in Denmark
according to Hakkulinen et al. 1986.
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10. Consensus statement on Kos on Cancer ASPIS 2001
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11A. Chernobyl infants paper title
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11B. Chernobyl infants sources
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11C. Chernobyl infants: England and Wales series
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11. Chernobyl infants: Caesium whole body doses define time
periods
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12. Chernobyl infants 2: calculating the leukaemia yield
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13. Chernobyl infants 3: results show large errors in ICRP
risk models.
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14. Chernobyl infants 4: dose response and doses
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15. Epidemiology shows cause for concern in the latter half
of the 20th century; Childhood mortality in the Soviet
nuclear cities.
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16. Unequivocal evidence of failure of ICRP risk model
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Session 5: Epidemiological studies part B
C. Busby Overheads
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1. Sellafield release to Irish sea trends
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2. Areas of low tidal energy (slack water) concentrate
radioactivity in offshore mud banks and tidal inlets and
estuaries in north Wales and north east Ireland
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3. Increases in cancer in Wales follows earlier cumulative
doses from weapons fallout (includes correlation of world radium production and generalised increase in childhood leukaemia)
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4. Releases from Sellafield end up on Welsh coast 2 years
later
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5. Wales Cancer Registry Areas of Residence for cancer study
1974-89 (colour)
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6. Wales-Trend with distance from sea of all malignancy
Standardised Risk males and females 1974-89
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7. Wales-Trend with distance from sea of lung cancer
Standardised Risk males and females 1974-89
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8. Wales-Trend with distance from sea of colon cancer
Standardised Risk males and females 1974-89
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9. Breast cancer in Wales diverges from England in the
1980s: Why?
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10A.Wales-Trend with distance from sea of breast cancer
Standardised Risk females 1974-89
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10B.Logarithmic trend of adult cancer risk by distance from
sea is significant in Wales study
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11. Childhood cancer trend by distance from the sea in Wales
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12. Brain tumours in children by distance from the sea in
Wales 1974-89
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13. Childhood cancers in Wales 1974-89, plot by distance
from sea: leukaemia risk in adults in Wales increases near
the coast from 1974-89
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14. Wales Cancer Intelligence Unit data compared with Wales
Cancer Registry data for childhood cancers
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15. Hot particles in the mud near Sellafield (autoradiograph
by Eric Hamilton)
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16. Alpha emitting hot particles in mussel shown by CR39
technique (Hamilton)
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17. Plutonium in sheep faeces by distance from Irish Sea
(Eakins et al. 1984)
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18. Plutonium in air near the sea in Cumbria, trapped in
muslin screens (Eakins and Lally 1984)
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19. Plutonium in children's teeth by distance from
Sellafield (Priest): Plutonium in grassland and soil (Cawse
and Horrill)
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20. Sea spray particles penetrate inland: formation and
scavenging of mud by surface tension
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21. Plutonium in woodland 1977 (Cawse and Horrill)
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22. Ireland small areas for 1994-96 study
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23. All malignancy in women, Irish small areas by distance
from sea in south, west and east.
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24. Hinkley Point study: All malignancy and lung cancer
mortality risks 1995-8 in Somerset wards follow the tidal
River Parrett and are higher near the mud bank(colour).
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25. Hinkley Point study: Prostate and lung cancer mortality
risks 1995-8 in Somerset follow the tidal River Parrett and
are higher near the mud bank(colour).
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26. Trend in cancer mortality by distance from Steart Flats
mud banks near Hinkley Point.
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27. Lung cancer mortality is high near the contaminated
coastal mud: Cardiff study(colour)
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28. Breast cancer mortality near Bradwell nuclear power
station: risks are high near the contaminated mud (colour)
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29. Carlingford questionnaire study: cancer clusters near
the contaminated mud (colour)
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30. Small area study results and conclusions
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Presentation by Richard Bramhall (LLRC) Limitations of current epidemiology
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Session 6: Effects from specific sources
C. Busby Overheads
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1. DNA targets and dimensions
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2. Cell is hit or not hit: large variation if microdose at
small dimensions
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3. ICRP external radiation phantom
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4. Hot particle in lung is 2 microns diameter and shows
alpha star
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5. Dose to local tissue from alpha emissions from Uranium
particles are very much higher than ICRP model calculates
for organs
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6. Hohenemser et al. make the point for Chernobyl hot
particles in Nature 1986
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7. Hot particles from Chernobyl on autoradiograph of skirt
of traveller from Kiev in 1986
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8. How easy is it for a track from an internal decay in the
cell to hit the DNA?
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9. Elements of Second Event Theory 1
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10. Elements of Second Event Theory 2
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11. Consequences of quadratic response to 2-hits inside 10
hours from internal isotope are that effect is 600 times
greater
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12. Original second event idea
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13. Variation in cell sensitivity over lifespan in vivo
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14. Typical doses and tracks to humans
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15. Conversion of natural background to photoelectrons by
small particles of elements of high atomic number like
Uranium results in high local dose part 1
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16. Conversion of natural background to photoelectrons by
small particles of elements of high atomic number like
Uranium results in high local dose part 2
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17. Some studies of internal radiation exposure
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18. Radiation workers and internal exposure
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19. Radium vs. Plutonium in beagles (Eyring): natural is not
the same as man made
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Session 7: "Wider Considerations"
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Presentation by Richard Bramhall (LLRC) Ethical considerations in radiation protection
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