Cancer and leukaemia increases after Chernobyl
the evidence for an error in ICRP risk factors.

NRPB claims there was no increase in cancer and leukaemia in young children after Chernobyl, but Cancer Registry data show statistically significant increases after the accident, compared with the rate prior to 1986.
The following tables were included in Green Audit's Occasional Paper 96/2, Cancer and leukaemia in children born in Wales and Scotland after Chernobyl: Preliminary Note, April 1996 and the results were brought to the attention of NRPB at the Symposium in the House of Commons on the tenth anniversary of the accident (Proceedings, pp 30 - 32).

Table 1 compares lymphoid leukaemia incidence in Wales age 0 - 4 with the annual average 1984 - 88

Table 2 compares all malignancies incidence in Wales age 0 - 4 in 1990 with the annual average 1984 - 88

Table 3 shows lymphoid leukaemia incidence age 0 - 4 in Scotland by year between 1981 and 1992

Table 4 shows all malignancies incidence age 0 - 4 in Scotland by year between 1981 and 1992

Table 1. Lymphoid leukaemia incidence in Wales age 0 - 4 before and after Chernobyl (data: Wales Cancer Registry. Note: we have had to use the average for 1984 - 88 since this is the only available data. Since this includes two post Chernobyl years it is likely that the real increases are higher than they appear here)
  persons rate per 100,000
1984-88 annual average 8 5.56
1990 12 7.85
% increase   41

Table 2: All malignancies in Wales age 0 - 4 before and after Chernobyl (data: Wales Cancer Registry) Note: we have had to use the average for 1984 - 88 since this is the only available data. Since this includes two post Chernobyl years it is likely that the real increases are higher than they appear here)
  persons rate per 100,000
1984-88 annual average 29 20
1990 39 25.5
% increase   27.5

Table 3: Lymphoid leukaemia trends age 0 - 4 in Scotland
(data: Scottish Cancer Registry)
year male nos. male rate f. nos. f. rate all nos. all rate
1981 12 7.35 3 1.94 15 4.65
1982 6 3.61 9 5.7 15 4.65
1983 10 5.94 8 5.01 18 5.47
1984 13 7.75 6 3.76 19 5.76
1985 5 3 6 3.79 11 3.4
1986 8 4.84 7 4.44 15 4.64
1987 12 7.28 17 10.81 29 9.1
1988 15 9.07 7 4.44 22 6.8
1989 13 7.8 8 5.04 21 6.5
1990 10 5.98 11 6.87 21 6.5
1991 11 6.59 8 5.05 19 5.8
1992 15 8.97 11 6.92 26 8

Table 4 All malignancies trends age 0 - 4 in Scotland
(data: Scottish Cancer Registry)
year male nos. male rate f. nos. f. rate all nos. all rate
1981 31 19 17 11 48 15
1982 27 16.26 21 13.3 48 14.8
1983 36 21.37 27 16.9 63 19
1984 37 22.05 27 16.9 64 19
1985 24 14.42 18 11.4 42 12.9
1986 31 18.75 19 12 50 15
1987 35 21.22 35 22.25 70 21.7
1988 35 21.15 23 14.6 58 17.8
1989 36 21.6 24 15.13 60 18.4
1990 32 19.14 33 20.62 65 19.9
1991 36 21.58 22 13.9 58 17.7
1992 30 17.94 33 20.75 63 19

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This page was last updated 13th April 2001