CERRIE workshop

CERRIE Workshop
St. Catherine's College Oxford, July 21 - 23 2003

Workshop presentations and material used by LLRC
These are almost all pdf files. To download them click on the yellow and black trefoil buttons on the left of the listed files.

One of LLRC's biggest objections to the way CERRIE has been run is the fact that it has ducked discussing the fundamental issue of scientific philosophy. We describe this as How scientists come to believe what they believe, and how they can believe things that are wrong. We hold that epistemology and consideration of science philosophy are absolutely crucial to trying to find our way through the sea of facts, dissonances, arguments and counter arguments which characterise this whole area. We think the Committee ought to see these as a scientific issue, but other committee members see it as outside the remit. Our thoughts on this were excluded from the Interim Report for discussion at the Workshop in July 2003 but a paper - Natural Philosophy and Deliberative Science - was circulated to participants, together with heavy caveats making it clear that this was not something the Committee had agreed. It is downloadable on this site in the form used by CERRIE's secretariat :- click here.

As from February 2011 the PDFs have been removed for reasons of space. Email us for any information you may need.

Session 2: Current understanding of radiation risk

C. Busby overheads

1. ICRP model assumptions and some questions, omissions and errors

2. The target is the cell and its genetic material.

3. Hot particles from Chernobyl: auto radiograph of skirt of woman who visited Kiev in July 1986 (Dr B Reeve, U. of Birmingham).

4. Opening Latour's Black Box (Bruno Latour: Science in Action, 1986); Ionising radiation at the cell level

5. Official calls for overhaul of the ICRP model.

6. Doses from a 1 micron diameter plutonium oxide particle to lymphatic system according to different calculation schemes.

7. Errors in the Hiroshima study

8. Mechanisms of failure of Hiroshima risk assessments

9. Leukaemia in the Hiroshima controls (plotted from UNSCEAR 1963)

10. Oversights of ICRP model in the low dose region

11. ICRP failure: summary

12. Result of failure is inability to predict or explain nuclear site clusters by factors involving orders of magnitude (ECRR 2003).

13. The present tension: induction vs. deduction

14. Wings of Death: Komensky

15. Evidence of errors in Hiroshima analysis

16. Infant mortality and weapons fallout (Whyte)

17. Child leukaemia and the radiation age: radium production and leukaemia deaths in children 0-14

18. Shortcomings of Hiroshima study

19. Anthropology and scientists: comparing scientific and primitive belief structures

20. Scientific Method

Session 3 Radiation effects
C. Busby overheads

1. Biphasic dose response and one possible source

2. Biphasic example: Weinberg minisatellite DNA mutations in Chernobyl liquidator children vs. unaffected siblings

3. Biphasic effect on dose response in nuclear industry family study

4. Hormesis as an incorrect linear interpretation of a biphasic response

5. Hormesis and its implications

6. Biphasic response is present in the Hiroshima study at low dose

Session 4 Epidemiological studies Part A
C. Busby Overheads

1. US cancer deaths in 0 - 5 yrs. from Rosalie Bertell

2. Infant mortality in US and elsewhere increases over period of weapons tests (Whyte)

3. Infant mortality from congenital heart defects in England and Wales and Strontium-90 in milk and precipitation

4. Infant mortality in Wales and air ionisation at Harwell; infant mortality in Wales and England and Sr-90 in milk

5. Fallout and childhood leukaemia 0 - 4 in England and Wales by rainfall areas(Bentham and Haynes)

6. Changes in age adjusted death rates for all leukaemias in US and Sr-90 (Archer)

7. Nordic leukaemia study with and without Danish data

8. Infant leukaemia in Denmark 1948-84: data from Olsen

9. Childhood and infant lymphoid leukaemia in Denmark according to Hakkulinen et al. 1986.

10. Consensus statement on Kos on Cancer ASPIS 2001

11A. Chernobyl infants paper title

11B. Chernobyl infants sources

11C. Chernobyl infants: England and Wales series

11. Chernobyl infants: Caesium whole body doses define time periods

12. Chernobyl infants 2: calculating the leukaemia yield

13. Chernobyl infants 3: results show large errors in ICRP risk models.

14. Chernobyl infants 4: dose response and doses

15. Epidemiology shows cause for concern in the latter half of the 20th century; Childhood mortality in the Soviet nuclear cities.

16. Unequivocal evidence of failure of ICRP risk model

Session 5: Epidemiological studies part B
C. Busby Overheads

1. Sellafield release to Irish sea trends

2. Areas of low tidal energy (slack water) concentrate radioactivity in offshore mud banks and tidal inlets and estuaries in north Wales and north east Ireland

3. Increases in cancer in Wales follows earlier cumulative doses from weapons fallout (includes correlation of world radium production and generalised increase in childhood leukaemia)

4. Releases from Sellafield end up on Welsh coast 2 years later

5. Wales Cancer Registry Areas of Residence for cancer study 1974-89 (colour)

6. Wales-Trend with distance from sea of all malignancy Standardised Risk males and females 1974-89

7. Wales-Trend with distance from sea of lung cancer Standardised Risk males and females 1974-89

8. Wales-Trend with distance from sea of colon cancer Standardised Risk males and females 1974-89

9. Breast cancer in Wales diverges from England in the 1980s: Why?

10A.Wales-Trend with distance from sea of breast cancer Standardised Risk females 1974-89

10B.Logarithmic trend of adult cancer risk by distance from sea is significant in Wales study

11. Childhood cancer trend by distance from the sea in Wales

12. Brain tumours in children by distance from the sea in Wales 1974-89

13. Childhood cancers in Wales 1974-89, plot by distance from sea: leukaemia risk in adults in Wales increases near the coast from 1974-89

14. Wales Cancer Intelligence Unit data compared with Wales Cancer Registry data for childhood cancers

15. Hot particles in the mud near Sellafield (autoradiograph by Eric Hamilton)

16. Alpha emitting hot particles in mussel shown by CR39 technique (Hamilton)

17. Plutonium in sheep faeces by distance from Irish Sea (Eakins et al. 1984)

18. Plutonium in air near the sea in Cumbria, trapped in muslin screens (Eakins and Lally 1984)

19. Plutonium in children's teeth by distance from Sellafield (Priest): Plutonium in grassland and soil (Cawse and Horrill)

20. Sea spray particles penetrate inland: formation and scavenging of mud by surface tension

21. Plutonium in woodland 1977 (Cawse and Horrill)

22. Ireland small areas for 1994-96 study

23. All malignancy in women, Irish small areas by distance from sea in south, west and east.

24. Hinkley Point study: All malignancy and lung cancer mortality risks 1995-8 in Somerset wards follow the tidal River Parrett and are higher near the mud bank(colour).

25. Hinkley Point study: Prostate and lung cancer mortality risks 1995-8 in Somerset follow the tidal River Parrett and are higher near the mud bank(colour).

26. Trend in cancer mortality by distance from Steart Flats mud banks near Hinkley Point.

27. Lung cancer mortality is high near the contaminated coastal mud: Cardiff study(colour)

28. Breast cancer mortality near Bradwell nuclear power station: risks are high near the contaminated mud (colour)

29. Carlingford questionnaire study: cancer clusters near the contaminated mud (colour)

30. Small area study results and conclusions

Presentation by Richard Bramhall (LLRC) Limitations of current epidemiology

Session 6: Effects from specific sources
C. Busby Overheads

1. DNA targets and dimensions

2. Cell is hit or not hit: large variation if microdose at small dimensions

3. ICRP external radiation phantom

4. Hot particle in lung is 2 microns diameter and shows alpha star

5. Dose to local tissue from alpha emissions from Uranium particles are very much higher than ICRP model calculates for organs

6. Hohenemser et al. make the point for Chernobyl hot particles in Nature 1986

7. Hot particles from Chernobyl on autoradiograph of skirt of traveller from Kiev in 1986

8. How easy is it for a track from an internal decay in the cell to hit the DNA?

9. Elements of Second Event Theory 1

10. Elements of Second Event Theory 2

11. Consequences of quadratic response to 2-hits inside 10 hours from internal isotope are that effect is 600 times greater

12. Original second event idea

13. Variation in cell sensitivity over lifespan in vivo

14. Typical doses and tracks to humans

15. Conversion of natural background to photoelectrons by small particles of elements of high atomic number like Uranium results in high local dose part 1

16. Conversion of natural background to photoelectrons by small particles of elements of high atomic number like Uranium results in high local dose part 2

17. Some studies of internal radiation exposure

18. Radiation workers and internal exposure

19. Radium vs. Plutonium in beagles (Eyring): natural is not the same as man made

Session 7: "Wider Considerations"

Presentation by Richard Bramhall (LLRC) Ethical considerations in radiation protection

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