Evidence of disease and birth defects in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and other territories affected by the Chernobyl disaster in 1986
page 6

INFANT MORTALITY IN GERMANY AND POLAND FOLLOWING THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT Koerblein A Munich Environmental Inst.
Monthly data of German early infant mortality (0-6 days) from 1980 to 1993 were analysed to detect possible deviations from the secular trend after the Chernobyl accident. Results were compared with monthly infant mortality data from Poland 1985-1990. The caesium concentration in pregnant women was calculated using measured data of the caesium content of cows' milk and a biological half life of 70 days. In both data sets a highly significant association between the delayed caesium concentration in the female body and an increase in infant mortality was found. The best estimate for the time lag between radiation exposure and mortality increase is seven months (95% CI 6 - 8 months). The dose response curve is curvilinear with a power of dose of 2.6 (90% CI from 1.5 to 4.5). With a log normal dose response relationship an equally good fit is yielded. The results are in contradiction to the common assumption of a threshold dose for teratogenic effects.

MALFORMATIONS IN BAVARIA FOLLOWING THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT Koerblein A Munich Environmental Inst.
Monthly malformation data for Bavaria from 1984 to 1991 were analysed to detect a possible rise after the Chernobyl accident. The odds ratio of the malformation rates in southern Bavaria, where the average caesium in soil contamination was above 20kBq/m2, to the rate in northern Bavaria, with about 5kBq/m2, shows a significant peak in November and December 1987, seven months after the highest caesium concentration in the human body. Malformation rates in the 96 Bavarian districts in Nov + Dec 1987 show a highly significant increase with the district average caesium soil contamination.

CARDIOVASCULAR DISORDERS IN CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENTS IN THE REMOTE PERIOD AFTER THE CHERNOBYL DISASTER Kostenko T A Inst. of Children and Adolescents' Health Care of AMS Ukraine, Kharkov.
Prefaced by "Now it has been established by means of a large number of epidemiological studies that the state of health of persons who suffered from the Chernobyl catastrophe gets aggravated year by year." 10 - 11 years after the accident evacuees were compared with controls. Results show a broad range of cardiovascular disorders, broadly reproducing Bandazhevsky's work (q.v.).

THE MAIN RESULTS OF THE STUDY OF THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT GENETIC CONSEQUENCES FOR POPULATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS Lazjuk G I et al. Belarus Inst. Hered. Dis., Minsk.
Comparison of rates of registered congenital malformations between contaminated and control areas showed an increase (quantity not given). The more contaminated regions showed smaller increases, yet regions with more than 555kBq/m2 Caesium showed 20% excess relative to control areas in latest 13 year period. Ascertainment did not change much after the accident.

HEALTH STATUS OF CHILDREN EXPOSED TO IONISING RADIATION IN UTERO Lomat L N Belarussian Centre for Medical Technologies, Computer Systems, Administration and Management of Health, Minsk.
Health of 2150 children in utero at the time of the accident categorised by trimester was followed until 1999. By 1999 only 14% were in health group 1, 48% in group 2, 38% in "chronic pathology" groups 3-5. 15 (= 84.5 per 10,000) were registered disabled. In their early years the children suffered acute diseases, mostly (63-74%) of the respiratory system, but after 1990 chronic pathology prevailed. While it is not entirely clear what comparator is used, relative risks are given:- mental disorders "9.7 times higher", diseases of osteomuscular system 6.8 times higher, of endocrine system 6.5. times, neoplasms 5.6 times, cardiovascular and digestive system diseases 5.3 times, thyroid diseases 3 times. The incidence of congenital malformations for the second trimesters is said to be double that of either the first or the third. This suggests that incidence in the first trimester was depressed by foetal death. [Using the method of Steiner et al. LLRC has calculated that the foetal dose (i.e. for a child conceived in late April 1986) would be 2.91mSv, based on ground deposition of Cs137 at 555kBq/m2.]

RADIATION INDUCED MALIGNANT TUMOURS IN BELARUS AS A RESULT OF THE CHERNOBYL ACCIDENT Malko M V, Inst. of Radiation Physical and Chemical Problems of NAS Belarus, Minsk.
Ecological methodology and data from Belarus Cancer Registry show 26,000 radiation induced cancers 18987-1999, 11,000 of them fatal. No latency period is apparent except for skin cancer. Risks appear one order of magnitude greater than indicated by A bomb survivors. Author suggests this is explainable on the basis of the existence of a radiosensitive sub population.

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