Compendium of evidence

Publication, peer review, and credibility
and References

It may be agued that some of the studies we cite should be disregarded, as they have not been published in the peer reviewed literature. Our reply is that the peer review system is suspect. Some of the studies which were so published ought not to have passed reviewers' scrutiny (e.g. Darby 1993, Parkin 1996); some have been rejected on demonstrably false grounds (e.g. Stewart 2000 - see reference below and text for reviewers' opinions: the Second Event theory - reviewers' opinions are reproduced in Busby 1995).

This is a quis custodiet? problem - the reviewers are in many cases inside the establishment. At the same time they publish voluminously without review. For example, Dr.McKinley, head of the Non-Ionising Radiation Department of the NRPB was cross-examined as expert witness for the defence in a recent court case. Asked about his qualifications and publications, Dr. McKinley said that he had obtained his Doctorate at the Paisley College of Technology after he had started working for the NRPB, and that his entire working career had been with NRPB. He said he had written over a hundred papers but that none of them had been subject to peer review - his work had mainly been published by the NRPB itself. The one work cited by the defence as an external publication was an EU experts group review of previous research; Dr.McKinley himself chaired the group. His expertise is solely in dosimetry and he said he was unqualified to answer any questions about biology or the biological effects of non-ionising radiation.

Similarly, the studies which underlie the Council Directive 96/29 (Basic Safety Standards) are in-house publications by the nuclear industry, its regulators, and the secretive Article 31 Group of experts which advises the European Commission on radiation protection matters. Public scrutiny and informed political debate are not permitted.


Alexander F. E., Cartwright R. A., MacKinney P. A., Ricketts T. J.; 1990. Leukaemia Incidence, Social Class and Estuaries: An Ecological Analysis. J. Public Health Medicine 12 No. 2 109 - 117.

Alexander, F. (Reader in cancer epidemiology. University of Edinburgh) Connection between leukaemia and radiation needs to be considered BMJ 1998;316:1672 ( 30 May )

Anon. 1960 Strontium-90 at Windscale BMJ ii 658-9

Archer, V. E. 1987 Association of nuclear fallout with leukaemia in the United States: Archives of Environmental Health, 42; 263-47

Atkinson, W. D. et al. 1994 Cancer risk has no effect on mortality BMJ 308: 268

Bentham, G. 1991 Chernobyl fallout and perinatal mortality in England and Wales: Social Science Medicine 33/4: 429 - 34

Bentham, G. and Haynes, R, 1995 Childhood Leukaemia in Great Britain and Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Testing, J. Rad. Prot. 15/1: 37- 43

Beral, V. Roman, E. Bobrow , M. 1993 Childhood cancer and nuclear installations BMJ Pubs London

Beral, V. Inskip, H. Fraser, P. Brook, M. Coleman, D. Rose, G. 1985 Mortality of employees of the UKAEA 1946 - 79. BMJ 291: 440 - 7.

Beral, V. Rooney, C. Maconochie, N. Fraser, P. Davies, G. 1993 Case control study of prostatic cancer in employees of UKAEA BMJ 307 1391 - 7 (27 November 1993)

Bithell et al 1994 BMJ 309 p 501-505 1994

Black, D. 1984 Investigation of the possible increased incidence of cancer in west Cumbria. H.M.S.O. 1984 ISBN 0 11 321006 X

Bramhall, R.(ed.) 1997 The Health Effects of Low Level Radiation: Proceedings of a Symposium held at the House of Commons 24 April 1996; Green Audit 1997 ISBN 1 897761 1 14 7

Bridges B. 1998 in "Costing the Earth" BBC Radio 4 27th May 1998

Burlakova E. B. 1996 "Chernobyl: environmental, health, and human rights implications: Permanent People's Tribunal/ International Medical Commission on Chernobyl" hearings Vienna 12-15 April 1996.
and see Radiation Protection Dosimetry: Radiobiological Consequences of nuclear accidents: contamination, radioecology, radiobiology and health. Eds. E. B. Burlakova, V. Naidich J. B. Reitan. Nuclear Technology Publications, 62 1-2 1995 pp 13 - 19 ISBN 1 870965 41 8

Busby, A. 1993 Radioactive fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing and its association with infant mortality in England and Wales from 1958 to 1970, M.Sc thesis, London, Imperial College

Busby 1994 Appraisal by Wales Green Party of Investigation of the incidence of cancer around Wylfa and Trawsfynydd nuclear installations 1974 to 1986; Welsh Office Report A:EMJ28, May 1994

Busby 1994b, Excess of other cancer in Wales BMJ 308: 268 22 Jan 1994

Busby C. C. 1995, Wings of Death Green Audit ISBN 1-897761-03-1

Busby 1996a p. 25 and Fig. 6 in Bramhall 1997

Busby 1997c pp 136 - 141 in Bramhall 1997

Busby 1998a Proximity to the Irish Sea and Leukemia Incidence in Children at ages 0-4 in Wales from 1974-1989: First Report of the Green Audit Irish Sea Research Group August 1st 1998. Busby, C. Kocjan, B. Mannion, E. Scott Cato, M

Busby 1998c Recalculating the "Second Event" Error: A reworking of the probabilities of Second Event damage to cells relative to Natural Background radiation: An extension of an argument contained in presentations to the International Congress on Risks to Workers and Members of the Public from Low Level Ionising Radiation, Muenster, March 19th 1998 and also to the Science and Technology Options Assessment Workshop of the European Parliament held in Brussels, February 5th 1998. Green Audit Occasional Papers (full paper on this site.)

Busby 1998d     Pers. comm.

Busby, C. Scott-Cato, M 1997 Death rates from leukaemia are higher than expected in areas around nuclear sites in Berkshire and Oxfordshire: B.M.J 2nd August 1997 p 309

Busby, C. Scott Cato, M. 1998 Increases in Leukemia in Infants in Wales and Scotland Following Chernobyl: Evidence for Errors in Statutory Risk Estimates. Green Audit Aberystwyth Occasional Papers No 98/2; June 1998

Busby, C. Scott Cato, M. 2000 Increases in Leukemia in Infants in Wales and Scotland Following Chernobyl: Evidence for Errors in Statutory Risk Estimates. Energy and Environment Vol. 11 2000, No. 2 127-139 [a revision of the above paper]

Busby and Scott-Cato 1998a Exposure to internal radioisotopes may be responsible; BMJ 1998;316:1672 ( 30 May )

Busby C 1999 "Quantifying Healthiness in Radiation Workers" Radioactive Times Vol 3 no. 1 March 1999 p 14 - a reworking of the data used by Muirhead

Busby 2000a Letter to the Editor "Commentary on the Second Event Theory of Busby by A. A. EDWARDS and R. COX" (International Journal of Radiation Biology IJRB 2000, Vol 76, No 1, 119-125)

Carpenter et al. 1998 Cancer mortality in relation to monitoring for radionuclide exposure in three nuclear industry workforces Brit. J. of Cancer 78/9 [1998] 1224-1232

Cartwright 1998 pers. comm.

Caufield, C. 1989 Multiple Exposures: Chronicles of the Radiation Age, Secker and Warburg

Clarke R. H. 1998 letter 24th June 1998 to Dr Lynne Jones MP, citing Satoh and Kodaira 1996

R. H. Clarke 1999 "Control of low-level radiation exposure: time for a change?" Journal of Radiological Protection, 1999, 19 No. 2

Cook-Mozzaffari P. J. Darby, S. C. Doll, R. Forman, D. et al. 1989a Geographical variation in mortality from leukaemia and other cancers in England and Wales in relation to proximity to nuclear installations, 1969-78; Brit. J. Cancer 1989, 59 476-485

Cook-Mozzaffari P. J. Darby, S. C. Doll, 1989b Cancer near potential sites of nuclear installations Lancet 1989, ii, 1145-1146

Council Directive 96/29/EURATOM of 13th May 1996 laying down basic safety standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionising radiation Official Journal L159 Vol. 39 29 June 1996

Cox, R, 1996, pp 111 - 114 in Bramhall 1996

Cox 2000 "Commentary on the Second Event Theory of Busby" A. A. Edwards and R. Cox International Journal of Radiation Biology 2000, Vol. 76, No 1, 119 - 125

Darby, S., Olsen, J. H., Doll, R. et al 1992 Trends in Childhood Leukaemia in the Nordic Countries in Relation to Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Testing, BMJ 304: 1005-9

DeSante D , and Geupel, G. R. 1987 Landbird Productivity in Central Coastal California: the Relationship to Annual Rainfall and a Reproductive Failure in 1986, The Condor, 89, 636.

DETR report No DETR/RAS/98.004 Derivation of UK Unconditional Clearance Levels for Solid Radioactively Contaminated Materials.
Commissioned Research for Radioactive Substances Division of DETR. Authors MD Hill (of WS Atkins) MC Thorne (Electrowatt, now at AEA Technology) P Williams (of WS Atkins) P Leyshon-Jones (Electrowatt)

Dickinson H. O. et al. Numbers of observed deaths were closer to those expected .. BMJ 315 8th Nov 1997 p 1232

Dickinson HO Parker L Quantifying the effect of population mixing on childhood leukaemia risk: the Seascale cluster British Journal of Cancer : Vol 81, Issue 1, September 1999.

Dietze G. 1997 EULEP EURADOS UIR / European Radiation Protection Research newsletter No. 1 August 1997, p 13

Doll R. Editorial to Dickinson HO Parker L Quantifying the effect of population mixing on childhood leukaemia risk: the Seascale cluster British Journal of Cancer : Vol 81, Issue 1, September 1999 [actually published 16th August].

Doll, R. "Defamatory article by Martin Walker"; Occupational and Environmental Medicine 2001; 58: 136 (

Draper, G. J., Vincent T. Findings were probably due to chance fluctuations in small numbers of deaths BMJ 315 8th Nov. 1997 p1233.

Draper, G. J. Little, M. P. Sorahan, T, Kinlen, L. J. et al. 1997 Cancer in the offspring of radiation workers: a record linkage study. British Medical Journal Vol. 315 p.1181; 8 Nov 1997

Dubrova, Y. E. Nesterov, V. N. Jeffreys, A. J. et al. 1996 Human minisatellite mutation rate after the Chernobyl accident. Nature 380 no. 6576 25 April 1996

Dubrova, Y. E. Nesterov, V. N. Jeffreys, A. J. 1997 Further evidence for elevated human minisatellite mutation rate in Belarus eight years after the Chernobyl accident. Mutation Research 381 pp 267 - 278 (1997)

Eakins, J. D., Lally, A. E., Cambray, R. S., Kilworth, D., Morrison, R. T., and Pratley, F. (1984), ‘Plutonium in sheep faeces as an indicator of deposition on vegetation’, Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, 87-105

Eakins JD, Lally AE (1984a)’The transfer to land of actinide bearing sediments from the Irish Sea by spray’ Science of the Total Environment 35 23-32

Edwards, R. 1997 Radiation Roulette: New Scientist 11th October 1997

Ellegren, H. Moller, A. P. et al. Fitness loss and germline mutations in barn swallows breeding in Chernobyl.Nature 389, 9th Sept. 1997 593 - 6

European Commission Radiation Protection 89 "Recommended radiological protection criteria for the recycling of metals from the dismantling of nuclear installations": recommendations of the group of experts set up under the terms of Article 31 of the Euratom Treaty. Directorate General Environment, Nuclear Safety and Civil Protection 1998

Eyring, H. and Stover, B. J. 1970<> The Dynamics of life; 1 Death from internal irradiation by 239-Pu and 226-Ra, ageing, cancer, and other diseases: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 66/1: 132-9

Gibson, B. E. S. . Eden, O. B Barrett, A. et al. (1988), 'Leukemia in young children in Scotland', Lancet, 1988: 630.

Gofman, J 1990 Radiation induced cancer from low dose exposure: an independent analysis, San Francisco, Committee for Nuclear Responsibility.

Goldman, Marvin. Cancer risk of low-level exposure, Science vol 271 29 March 1996 1821 - 1822

Gould, J. M. and Goldman, B. A. (1991) Deadly Deceit: Low Level Radiation - High Level Cover-up, Four Walls Eight Windows, New York.

Gould, J. M., Mangano, J. and Sternglass, E. J. (1996) Post-Chernobyl Thyroid Disease in the United States of America, paper presented at the International Medical Commission Conference, Vienna April 12 - 15 1996 (available from the Radiation and Public Health Project, 302 W 86th Street, New York, NY 10024) See also Mangano, J. J. (1996) Chernobyl and Hypothyroidism, Lancet 347, 1482.

Gould, J. M., and Sternglass, E. J. (1989) Low Level Radiation and Mortality Chemtech 19, 18-21.

Gould, J. M., and Sternglass, E. J. (1994) Nuclear Fallout, Low Birthweight and Immune Deficiency, Int. J. Health Services 24, 311.

Gould, J. M., Sternglass, E. J., Mangano, J. J. and McDonnell, W. (1995) The Enemy Within: the High Cost of Living Near Nuclear Reactors, Four Walls, Eight Windows/ Turnaround, New York/ London.

A-V Guizard, O Boutou, D Pottier, X Troussard, D Pheby, G Launoy, R Slama, A Spira, and ARKM The incidence of childhood leukaemia around the La Hague nuclear waste reprocessing plant (France): a survey for the years 1978-1998. J Epidemiol Community Health 2001; 55: 469-474

Heasman, M. A. Kemp, I. W. Urquart J. Black, R<>. Childhood leukaemia in northern Scotland 1986 Lancet i: 266

Hohenemser, C. Deicher, M. Hofsass, H. et al 1986 Agricultural impact of Chernobyl: a warning. Nature 26th June 1986 p. 817 back to ref. in part 3

Holm L. E. Lundell, G. Wicklund, K. E. et al 1988<> Thyroid cancer after diagnostic doses of Iodine-131: a retrospective study. J. of the National Cancer Institute, 80, 1132-6

ICRP 1965 The Evaluation of Risks from Radiation. ICRP publication 8, Pergamon Press Oxford

Jablon, S. Hrubec, Z. Boice, J. D. 1990 Cancer in populations living near nuclear facilities. A survey of mortality nationwide and in two states National Cancer Institute/ National Institute of Health publications 90-874 (also in J. American Med. Assn. 1991, 265, 1403-1408.

Jones, S 1993 in Reay and Hope vs BNFL, High Court, London: day 6

Kazakov, V. S., Demidchik, E. P., and Astakhova, L. N. (1992) Thyroid Cancer after Chernobyl, Nature 359, 21.

Kershaw PJ, Denoon DC and Woodhead D S, ‘Observations on the redistribution of Plutonium and americium in the irish Sea Sediments 1978-1996: concentrations and inventories’. Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 1999 44 191-221

Kneale, G. W. Mancuso T. F. Stewart, A. 1981 Hanford Radiation Study III: a cohort study of the cancer risks from radiation to workers at Hanford (1944-77 deaths) by the method of regression models in life tables Br. J. of Industrial Medicine, Vol. 38 pp 156-166

Lancet Volume 356, Number 9223 01 July 2000 Mortality among UK Gulf War veterans Gary J Macfarlane, Elaine Thomas, Nicola Cherry.

LLRC 1997 Radioactive Times vol. 2 no. 2 p15 & no. 3 p 11

Luning, K. F., Frolen, H., Nelson, A., and Ronnback, C. (1963), Genetic Effects of Strontium-90 Injected into Male Mice, Nature, 197: 304-5

Mangano J.(1997), 'Childhood leukemia in US may have risen due to fallout from Chernobyl', British Medical Journal, 314: 1200.

McKinroy, J. F. Kathren, R.L. Voelz, G.L. Swint, M. J. 1991 U. S Transuranium Registry Report on the 239 Pu distribution in a human body Health Physics, Vol. 60 No. 3 307-333 March 1991 (data)

Merculova 1996 in Bramhall 1997 page 107 and Fig. 64

Michaelis J. Keller, B. et al. Incidence of childhood malignancies in the vicinity of West German nuclear power plants; Cance r Causes and Control, 1992 3, 255-263

Miller R.C, Randers-Pehrson G, Geard C. R, Hall E. J, Brenner D. J, 1999: The oncogenic transforming potential of the passage of single alpha particles through mammalian cell nuclei" Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences USA 96, 19-22 1999

Muirhead, C. R. (NRPB) 1998 Childhood cancer and nuclear installations: a review. Nuclear Energy 1998, 37, No. 6 Dec. 371 - 379.

Muirhead et al. Journal of Radiological Protection 19; 1 - 24 (March 1999)

NRPB 1995 "Risk of radiation-induced cancer at low doses and low dose rates for radiation protection purposes" Documents of the NRPB Vol. 6 No. 1 1995 ISBN 0-85951-386-6

Nishiwaki, Y. Yamashita, H Honda, Y et al. 1972 Effects of radioactive fallout on the pregnant woman and foetus. I. J. Environmental Studies,2 : 277-89

Nussbaum, R. H. Koenlein, W 1994 Inconsistencies and Open Questions Regarding Low-Dose Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation. Environmental Health Perspectives 102: 656-667 (1994) (

Nussbaum, R. H. 1998 "The linear no-threshold dose-effect relation: Is it relevant to radiation protection regulation?" Medical Physics Vol. 25 No. 3 March 1998 (Journal of the American Association of Phyisicists in Medicine).

OECD 1996: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency's Co-operative Programme on Decommissioning of Nuclear Installations Task Group study of problems and possible critieria associated with the recycling and reuse of metallic materials resulting from decommissioning. Reported in 1996. We're told it's at, but we haven't checked.

Parkin et al. 1996 Childhood leukaemia in Europe after Chernobyl: 5 year follow-up BJC (1996) 73 1006-1012

Petridou, E. Trichopoulos, D. . Dessypris, N. et al. (1996) 'Infant leukemia after in utero exposure to radiation from Chernobyl,' Nature, 382: 352-353.

Popplewell DS Ham GJ Johnson TE Barry SF 1985 "Plutonium in autopsy tissue in Great Britain" Health Physics 49 304

Popplewell DS 1986 "Plutonium in autopsy tissue in Great Britain" NRPB 74 Chilton 1986

Popplewell DS Ham GJ Dodd NJ Shuttler SD Plutonium and Cs-137 in Autopsy tissues in Great Britain Science of the Total Environment 70 (1988) 321 - 334

Priest, N. D., O’Donnell, R.G., Mitchell, P. I., Strange, L., Fox, A., Henshaw, D. L., and Long, S. C. (1997), ‘Variations in the concentration of plutonium, strontium-90 and total alpha emitters in human teeth collected within the British Isles’, Science of the Total Environment, 201, 235-243.

European Commission 1993: "Principles and Methods for Establishing Concentrations and Quantities (Exemption Values) below which Reporting is not required in the European Directive"; Commission of the European Communities 1993 XI-028/93

RERF 1971 (Radiation Effects Research Foundation) (1971) Studies of the Mortality of A-Bomb Survivors, in Mortality and Radiation Dose 1950 - 66, ed G. W. Beebe, H. Kato, and C. E. Land. RERF TR-11-70; repr. in Radiation Research 613-49.

Eve Roman, Pat Doyle, Noreen Maconochie, Graham Davies, Peter G Smith, and Valerie Beral Cancer in children of nuclear industry employees: report on children aged under 25 years from nuclear industry family study. BMJ 1999; 318: 1443-1450. 29th May 1999

Roman E, Watson A, Beral V, Buckle S, Bull D, Baker K, Ryder H, Barton C Case-control study of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among children aged 0-4 years living in west Berkshire and north Hampshire health districts. BMJ 1993 Mar 6;306(6878):615-21

Satoh and Kodaira Nature 380 (1996) 226.

Savchenko, V. A. 1995 The ecology of the Chernobyl catastrophe, UNESCO

Smirnova, E. I and Lyaginska, A. M., (1969), Heart Development of Sr-90 Injured Rats, in Radioaktiv Izotopy Organizs. 348 ed. Moskalev, Y. I. and Izd, Y. I. (Moscow: Medizina)

Strahlenschutzkommission (SSK) des Bundesministerium fur Umwelt, Naturschutz und Reaktorsicherheit Heft 16 (1998 ): Clearance of Materials Buildings and Sites with Negligible Radioactivity from Practices subject to Reporting or Authorisation: Recommendation of the Commission on Radiological Protection. ISSN 0948-308X

Sternglass E. J. 1971, "Environmental radiation and human health", in Proceedings of Sixth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, ed. J. Neyman. Berkeley, Cal. U. of C. Press

Sternglass 1981 "Secret Fallout" New York, McGraw Hill. back to text of page 2

Sternglass 1996 in Bramhall1997 pp.126-7

Steward, J.1994 Investigation of the incidence of cancer around Wylfa and Trawsfynydd nuclear installations 1974 to 1986; Welsh Office Report A:EMJ28, May 1994.
NOTE: Dr Steward has told Dr Busby that he was the author of this paper. In July 1999 he told LLRC (in a telephone conversation) that he did not. LLRC wrote to the Chief Medical Officer for Wales to ask who did write the paper (and, since peer review seems to be such a big deal, who reviewed it) But she didn't know. Another failure of the peer review system.

Stewart, A. M. 1982 Delayed effects of A-bomb radiation: a review of recent mortality rates and risk estimates for five-year survivors. J. Epidemiology and Community Health 26/2: 80-6

Stewart, A. M. 2000 long unpublished [see below]. Professor Alice Stewart, one of the longest standing and most respected critics of the radiological establishment, had this work rejected by three Journals in the 1990s. (This is not a novel experience for Pr. Stewart!) One of the referees' opinions included the following:
          ... it is very odd that burns have been included in the analysis of this paper; this hardly seems to            be an effect caused by exposure to radiation.
Pr. Stewart presented this material to:
Standing Conference on Low Level Radiation and Health, Bristol 1997,
Nuclear Free Local Authorities Conference, Manchester 6th March 1998,
International Congress on Risks to Workers and Members of the Public from Low Level Ionising Radiation, Muenster, March 19th 1998 and also to the
Science and Technology Options Assessment (STOA) Workshop of the European Parliament held in Brussels, February 5th 1998.
It has now been published: A bomb survivors: factors that may lead to a re-assessment of the radiation hazard: International Journal of Epidemiology 29 no. 4 (4 Aug 2000)
and see The Survivor New Scientist 5 Aug. 2000 p45-47
and The Woman Who Knew Too Much Gayle Greene, U.Michigan Press ISBN 0472111078

STOA 1998 Workshop Report "Survey and Evaluation of of criticism of basic safety standards for the protection of workers and the public against ionising radiation" European Parliament STOA Unit, Brussels
The European Commission has lost the report. The abstracts of presentations are on this site

Sutcliffe, C. 1987 The Dangers of Low Level Radiation; Avebury 1987 some extracts on NRPB's shortcomings are on this site

Tamplin, A. R. Gofman, J. W. 1970. The Radiation Effects Controversy, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, 26/2: 5-8

Viel, J. F., Pobel, D., and Carre, A. (1995) Incidence of Leukaemia in Young People around the la Hague Waste Reprocessing Plant, a Sensitivity Analysis, Statistics in Medicine 14: 2459-72.

Viel, J-F. Pobel, D. 1997 British Medical J. 7074 vol.314 11 Jan. 1997

Wales Cancer Registry Occasional Paper Bone Cancer in Wales August 1996

Watson, W. and Sumner, D. 1996 Measurement of radioactivity in people living near the Dounreay nuclear establishment, Caithness, Scotland. I. J. Rad. Biol. 70 (2), 117 - 130 (1996)

J L Wiemels, G Cazzaniga, M Daniotti, O B Eden, G M Addison, G Masera, V Saha, A Biondi, M F Greaves
Prenatal origin of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children:
Lancet Volume 354, Number 9189 30 October 1999

Whyte, R. K. 1992. First Day Neonatal Mortality since 1935; a Re-examination of the Cross Hypothesis: British Medical Journal 304:343-6 (1992)

Whyte, R. K. 1996 letter to LLRC in Bramhall 1997 page 129

Ziggel 1998 Evidence of the impact on health of normal operation of nuclear facilities: in STOA 1998

Categories of evidence:
1) studies on which radiation protection standards are based, and those which undermine them:
2) epidemiological studies showing a risk not accounted for by NRPB/ ICRP model
3) studies which are said to demonstrate that there is no unappreciated risk but which have demonstrable flaws or which do, in fact, show an excess risk.
4) animal studies
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