Cancer in Belarus increased 40% after Chernobyl
New study published

LLRC's predictions confirmed

In November 2004 The Swiss Medical Weekly published findings by workers at the Clinical Institute of Radiation Medicine and Endocrinology Research in Minsk, Belarus. It shows that between 1990 and 2000 cancer rates have risen by 40% overall, compared with rates before the catastrophe in April 1986.

Belarus has had a national Cancer Registry as long as anywhere in Britain, keeping a computer database of all new cases of malignant tumours.

The new paper presents an overall comparison of changes in the incidence of cancer morbidity in Belarus. The increase is statistically significant for all regions.

This completely contradicts the predictions of ICRP and the pronouncements of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Health Organisation.

In 2001 Chris Busby reported to the Belarus government that cancer would increase by 125% over the lifetimes of the exposed population (www.llrc.org/belarus.htm).

Now, 18 years after the accident, 40% of that increase is apparent. Relative Risks all have high statistical significance.
Increases in the various oblasts (regions) were:

• Brest 33%
• Vitebsk 38%
• Gomel 52%
• Grodno 44%
• Minsk 49%
• Mogilev 32%
• Minsk city 18%
• all Belarus 40%

The view of conventional radiation protection "experts", however, is that very little if any cancer has resulted or will result from the fallout. This was expressed, for example, in 2000 by a United Nations committee (UNSCEAR 2000):

Apart from the substantial increase in thyroid cancer after childhood exposure observed in Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine there is no evidence of a major public health impact related to ionising radiation 14 years after the Chernobyl accident. No increases in overall cancer incidence or mortality that could be associated with radiation exposure have been observed. The risk of leukaemia, one of the most sensitive indicators of radiation exposure, has not been found to be elevated even in the accident recovery operation workers or in children. There is no scientific proof of an increase in non-malignant disorders related to ionising radiation. … For the most part [the public] were exposed to radiation levels comparable to or a few times higher than the natural background levels. Lives have been disrupted by the Chernobyl accident but from the radiological point of view, based on the assessment of this Annex, generally positive prospects for the future health of most individuals should prevail.

For evidence of increases in non-malignant disorders see our summaries of 100 papers from the affected territories.

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Reference

A national cancer registry to assess trends after the Chernobyl accident
A. E. Okeanov, E. Y. Sosnovskaya, O. P. Priatkina; Clinical Institute of Radiation Medicine and Endocrinology Research, Minsk, Belarus
SWISS MED WKLY 2004;134:645–649 Issue 43/44, Nov 2004 (right click here to save to your computer)

UNSCEAR (2000) United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. Sources and Effects of Ionising Radiation 2000. UN General Assembly, with Scientific Annexes. United Nations New York. Annex J Final Summary